PA-10 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

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U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 10 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Janelle Stelson

62%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Scott Perry incumbent

38%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentScott Perry

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

62% Janelle Stelson · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Janelle Stelson 62%

REP Scott Perry 38%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Stelson 47.0% · Perry 44.0% Franklin & Marshall College · 2026-09-20

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+5 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 50.6% 2024 general · margin 1.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMStelsonREPPerry

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Janelle Stelson$9,234,259.74

Scott Perry$6,791,519.08

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Janelle Stelson$7,180,190.91

Scott Perry$5,849,868.83

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Janelle Stelson$2,069,306.31

Scott Perry$1,023,569.23

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Janelle Stelson47.0%Franklin & Marshall College · 2026-09-20

Scott Perry44.0%Franklin & Marshall College · 2026-09-20

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Janelle StelsonR+5seat-level

Scott PerryR+5seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

3 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-09-20

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Stelson	Perry	Others
Franklin & Marshall College	2026-09-09 to 2026-09-20	RV · n=390	47.0%	44.0%	none
Public Policy PollingRepublicans Against Perry	2025-11-18 to 2025-11-19	RV · n=549	48.0%	44.0%	none
Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC	2025-07-10 to 2025-07-11	A · n=559	46.0%	43.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+5

Lean (D minus R, points): -5.028

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Scott Perry	REP	205,567	50.63%
Janelle Stelson	DEM	200,434	49.37%

Total votes 406,001 · winning margin 1.26% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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