PA-11 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 11 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Nancy Mannion

5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Lloyd Smucker incumbent

95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentLloyd Smucker

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

95% Lloyd Smucker · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Lloyd Smucker 95%

DEM Nancy Mannion 5%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+14 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 62.9% 2024 general · margin 25.8%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMMannionREPSmucker

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Nancy Mannion$320,443.98

Lloyd Smucker$1,854,590.36

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Nancy Mannion$280,763.39

Lloyd Smucker$2,499,874.06

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Nancy Mannion$39,680.59

Lloyd Smucker$258,808.23

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Nancy MannionNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Lloyd SmuckerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Nancy MannionR+14seat-level

Lloyd SmuckerR+14seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+14

Lean (D minus R, points): -13.549

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Lloyd Smucker	REP	253,672	62.90%
Jim Atkinson	DEM	149,641	37.10%

Total votes 403,313 · winning margin 25.79% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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