PA-15 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 15 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Ray Bilger

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Glenn Thompson incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentGlenn Thompson

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Glenn Thompson · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Glenn Thompson 98%

DEM Ray Bilger 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+21 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 71.5% 2024 general · margin 42.9%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMBilgerREPThompson

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Ray Bilger$230,753.32

Glenn Thompson$2,152,943.64

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Ray Bilger$141,838.86

Glenn Thompson$2,240,791.05

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Ray Bilger$88,914.46

Glenn Thompson$703,946.49

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Ray BilgerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Glenn ThompsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Ray BilgerR+21seat-level

Glenn ThompsonR+21seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+21

Lean (D minus R, points): -20.722

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Glenn Thompson	REP	279,027	71.47%
Zach Womer	DEM	111,408	28.53%

Total votes 390,435 · winning margin 42.93% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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