PA-16 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 16 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Justin Wagner

6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Mike Kelly incumbent

94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMike Kelly

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

94% Mike Kelly · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Mike Kelly 94%

DEM Justin Wagner 6%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+13 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 63.6% 2024 general · margin 27.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMWagnerREPKelly

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Justin Wagner$247,119.36

Mike Kelly$1,414,934.57

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Justin Wagner$189,264.93

Mike Kelly$1,418,429.95

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Justin Wagner$62,854.43

Mike Kelly$1,039,192.40

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Justin WagnerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Mike KellyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Justin WagnerR+13seat-level

Mike KellyR+13seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+13

Lean (D minus R, points): -12.718

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Mike Kelly	REP	256,923	63.65%
Preston Nouri	DEM	146,709	36.35%

Total votes 403,632 · winning margin 27.31% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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