RI-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Rhode Island District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Gabe Amo incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

INDOn the ballot

Pedro Junior Soares DeSouza

—Not published for this candidate

REPNominee

Kellie Eleanor Keenan

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentGabe Amo

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Gabe Amo · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Gabe Amo 99%

REP Kellie Eleanor Keenan 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Amo 52.0% · Keenan 33.0% · Desouza 4.0% Embold Research / Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy · 2026-10-08

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+12 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 63.2% 2024 general · margin 31.1%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMAmoINDDesouzaREPKeenan

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Gabe Amo$1,952,763.16through 2026-10-14

Pedro Junior Soares DeSouza$13,117.74through 2026-10-14

Kellie Eleanor Keenan$15,410.44through 2026-09-30

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Gabe Amo$888,545.53through 2026-10-14

Pedro Junior Soares DeSouza$13,006.17through 2026-10-14

Kellie Eleanor Keenan$13,578.04through 2026-09-30

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Gabe Amo$1,998,865.12through 2026-10-14

Pedro Junior Soares DeSouza$111.57through 2026-10-14

Kellie Eleanor Keenan$1,832.40through 2026-09-30

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Gabe Amo52.0%Embold Research · 2026-10-08

Pedro Junior Soares DeSouza4.0%Embold Research · 2026-10-08

Kellie Eleanor Keenan33.0%Embold Research · 2026-10-08

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Gabe AmoD+12seat-level

Pedro Junior Soares DeSouzaD+12seat-level

Kellie Eleanor KeenanD+12seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

1 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-08

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Amo	Desouza	Keenan	Others
Embold ResearchSalve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy	2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08	LV · n=363	52.0%	4.0%	33.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+12

Lean (D minus R, points): +12.355

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Gabe Amo	DEM	139,352	63.18%
Allen Rodney Waters	REP	70,742	32.07%
C. D. Reynolds	OTH	10,463	4.74%

Total votes 220,557 · winning margin 31.11% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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