RI-02 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Rhode Island District 2 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Seth Magaziner incumbent

96%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Victor Mellor

4%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentSeth Magaziner

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

96% Seth Magaziner · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Seth Magaziner 96%

REP Victor Mellor 4%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Magaziner 52.0% · Mellor 39.0% Embold Research / Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy · 2026-10-08

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+4 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 58.4% 2024 general · margin 16.8%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMMagazinerREPMellor

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Seth Magaziner$1,612,494.98

Victor Mellor$3,885,928.85

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Seth Magaziner$909,266.42

Victor Mellor$3,841,576.22

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Seth Magaziner$1,580,193.79

Victor Mellor$44,352.63

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Seth Magaziner52.0%Embold Research · 2026-10-08

Victor Mellor39.0%Embold Research · 2026-10-08

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Seth MagazinerD+4seat-level

Victor MellorD+4seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

1 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-08

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Magaziner	Mellor	Others
Embold ResearchSalve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy	2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08	LV · n=417	52.0%	39.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+4

Lean (D minus R, points): +4.051

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Seth Magaziner	DEM	153,439	58.38%
Stephen Joseph Corvi	REP	109,381	41.62%

Total votes 262,820 · winning margin 16.76% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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