Share this race
Download share card (PNG)
Race header
DEMNominee
Jack Reed
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Michael Bahry
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Raymond McKay
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJack Reed
Hume Outlook
99% Jack Reed · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Jack Reed
99%
REP
Raymond McKay
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Reed 55.0% · Mckay 32.0% · Bahry 4.0%
Embold Research / Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy · 2026-10-08
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+8
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
DEM 66.6%
2020 general · margin 33.2%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMReedINDBahryREPMckay
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jack Reed$3,727,368.44
Michael Bahry$125,116.13
Raymond McKay$207,230.98
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jack Reed$3,432,028.32
Michael Bahry$32,498.85
Raymond McKay$199,212.20
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jack Reed$1,883,532.16
Michael Bahry$92,617.28
Raymond McKay$8,357.31
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jack Reed55.0%Embold Research · 2026-10-08
Michael Bahry4.0%Embold Research · 2026-10-08
Raymond McKay32.0%Embold Research · 2026-10-08
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jack ReedD+8seat-level
Michael BahryD+8seat-level
Raymond McKayD+8seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
4 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Reed | Bahry | Mckay | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embold ResearchSalve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08 | LV · n=815 | 55.0% | 4.0% | 32.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-17 to 2026-09-21 | LV · n=598 | 53.0% | 5.0% | 33.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-20 to 2026-08-24 | LV · n=750 | 51.0% | 2.0% | 31.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-18 to 2026-06-23 | LV · n=664 | 52.0% | not named | 34.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+8
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +7.998
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Reed | DEM | 328,574 | 66.59% |
| Allen R. Waters | REP | 164,855 | 33.41% |
Total votes 493,429 · winning margin 33.18% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.