SC-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, South Carolina District 4 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Courtney McClain

6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

LIBOn the ballot

Jessica Ethridge

—Not published for this candidate

REPNominee

William Timmons incumbent

94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentWilliam Timmons

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

94% William Timmons · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP William Timmons 94%

DEM Courtney McClain 6%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+12 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 59.9% 2024 general · margin 22.6%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMMcclainLIBEthridgeREPTimmons

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Courtney McClain$130,729.56through 2026-10-14

Jessica Ethridge$963.04through 2026-09-30

William Timmons$1,774,179.99through 2026-10-14

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Courtney McClain$79,614.91through 2026-10-14

Jessica Ethridge$483.01through 2026-09-30

William Timmons$1,708,691.64through 2026-10-14

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Courtney McClain$50,464.65through 2026-10-14

Jessica Ethridge$480.03through 2026-09-30

William Timmons$85,603.37through 2026-10-14

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Courtney McClainNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Jessica EthridgeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

William TimmonsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Courtney McClainR+12seat-level

Jessica EthridgeR+12seat-level

William TimmonsR+12seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+12

Lean (D minus R, points): -12.401

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
William Timmons	REP	206,916	59.86%
Kathryn Harvey	DEM	128,976	37.31%
Mark Hackett	OTH	9,779	2.83%

Total votes 345,671 · winning margin 22.55% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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