SC-07 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, South Carolina District 7 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

John Vincent

5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Russell Fry incumbent

95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentRussell Fry

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

95% Russell Fry · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Russell Fry 95%

DEM John Vincent 5%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+11 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 65.0% 2024 general · margin 30.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMVincentREPFry

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

John Vincent$640,418.73

Russell Fry$1,985,244.19

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

John Vincent$570,071.44

Russell Fry$2,387,239.40

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

John Vincent$70,347.29

Russell Fry$159,187.48

Latest pollpercent, as stored

John VincentNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Russell FryNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

John VincentR+11seat-level

Russell FryR+11seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+11

Lean (D minus R, points): -11.435

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Russell Fry	REP	240,326	64.98%
Mal Hyman	DEM	129,522	35.02%

Total votes 369,848 · winning margin 29.96% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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