SD at-large House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, South Dakota at-large · Open seat

DEMNominee

Nicole Nikki Gronli

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Marty Jackley

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Marty Jackley · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Marty Jackley 97%

DEM Nicole Nikki Gronli 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+16 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 72.0% 2024 general · margin 44.1%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMGronliREPJackley

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Nicole Nikki Gronli$421,803.07

Marty Jackley$1,737,520.15

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Nicole Nikki Gronli$399,312.34

Marty Jackley$687,379.37

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Nicole Nikki Gronli$22,490.73

Marty Jackley$1,050,140.78

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Nicole Nikki GronliNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Marty JackleyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Nicole Nikki GronliR+16seat-level

Marty JackleyR+16seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+16

Lean (D minus R, points): -16.180

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Dusty Johnson	REP	303,630	72.04%
Sheryl Johnson	DEM	117,818	27.96%

Total votes 421,448 · winning margin 44.09% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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