Share this race
Download share card (PNG)
Race header
INDOn the ballot
Brian L. Bengs
16%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Mike Rounds
incumbent
84%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMike Rounds
Hume Outlook
84% Mike Rounds · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Mike Rounds
84%
IND
Brian L. Bengs
16%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Rounds 50.0% · Bengs 42.0%
Emerson College / KELO-TV · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+15
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 65.7%
2020 general · margin 31.5%
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureINDBengsREPRounds
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Brian L. Bengs$1,855,763.43
Mike Rounds$3,810,748.34
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Brian L. Bengs$1,786,054.97
Mike Rounds$4,385,234.49
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Brian L. Bengs$69,708.46
Mike Rounds$1,295,542.92
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Brian L. Bengs42.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-20
Mike Rounds50.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Brian L. BengsR+15seat-level
Mike RoundsR+15seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Bengs | Rounds | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegeKELO-TV | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=803 | 42.0% | 50.0% | none |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=657 | 37.0% | 59.0% | none |
| Mason-DixonSouth Dakota News Watch; Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=500 | 37.0% | 56.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+15
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -14.698
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | REP | 276,232 | 65.74% |
| Dan Ahlers | DEM | 143,987 | 34.26% |
Total votes 420,219 · winning margin 31.47% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.