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Race · U.S. House · Tennessee · 2026

Tennessee District 2 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Tennessee District 2

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Race header

U.S. House, Tennessee District 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Michaela Barnett
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Adam Heimerman
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Bruce Fine
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Tim Burchett incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTim Burchett

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
97% Tim Burchett · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Tim Burchett 97%
DEM Michaela Barnett 3%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMBarnettINDHeimermanINDFineREPBurchett
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Michaela Barnett$717,841.92
Adam HeimermanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bruce FineNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tim Burchett$3,131,314.70
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Michaela Barnett$587,591.39
Adam HeimermanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bruce FineNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tim Burchett$2,945,393.80
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Michaela Barnett$130,250.53
Adam HeimermanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bruce FineNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tim Burchett$914,110.98
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Michaela BarnettNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Adam HeimermanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Bruce FineNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tim BurchettNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Michaela BarnettNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Adam HeimermanNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Bruce FineNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Tim BurchettNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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