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Race · U.S. House · Tennessee · 2026

Tennessee District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Tennessee District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, Tennessee District 5 · Open seat
DEMNominee
Chaz Molder
16%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
James Johnson
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Micheál O'Leary
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Charlie Hatcher
84%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
84% Charlie Hatcher · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Charlie Hatcher 84%
DEM Chaz Molder 16%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMolderINDJohnsonINDO'LearyREPHatcher
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Chaz Molder$3,531,777.70
James JohnsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Micheál O'Leary$0.00
Charlie Hatcher$1,803,850.94
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Chaz Molder$2,971,282.50
James JohnsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Micheál O'Leary$0.00
Charlie Hatcher$1,329,308.19
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Chaz Molder$560,495.20
James JohnsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Micheál O'Leary$0.00
Charlie Hatcher$474,542.75
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Chaz MolderNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
James JohnsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Micheál O'LearyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Charlie HatcherNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Chaz MolderNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
James JohnsonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Micheál O'LearyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Charlie HatcherNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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