Race header
DEMNominee
Justin J. Pearson
24%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Dennis Jeffrey Clark
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Michelle Davis Head
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Brent Taylor
76%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
76% Brent Taylor · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Brent Taylor
76%
DEM
Justin J. Pearson
24%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Pearson 44.0% · Taylor 48.0%
Hart Research Associates / Tennessee Rise · 2026-09-03
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMPearsonINDClarkINDHeadREPTaylor
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Justin J. Pearson$4,009,058.26
Dennis Jeffrey ClarkNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michelle Davis HeadNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brent Taylor$2,832,273.18
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Justin J. Pearson$3,262,930.01
Dennis Jeffrey ClarkNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michelle Davis HeadNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brent Taylor$2,308,021.89
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Justin J. Pearson$746,128.25
Dennis Jeffrey ClarkNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michelle Davis HeadNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brent Taylor$524,251.29
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Justin J. Pearson44.0%Hart Research Associates · 2026-09-03
Dennis Jeffrey ClarkNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-09-03)
Michelle Davis HeadNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-09-03)
Brent Taylor48.0%Hart Research Associates · 2026-09-03
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Justin J. PearsonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Dennis Jeffrey ClarkNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Michelle Davis HeadNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Brent TaylorNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Pearson | Clark | Head | Taylor | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesTennessee Rise | 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-03 | LV · n=400 | 44.0% | not named | not named | 48.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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