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DEMNominee
Marquita Bradshaw
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Andrew Gerena
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Catherine Barcel Barcy Whitson
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
David Sutman Jr.
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
James William Macon III
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Jeremy Dean Hearn
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Robert Jones
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Tharon Chandler
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Yoshi D. Matthews
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Bill Hagerty
incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBill Hagerty
Hume Outlook
97% Bill Hagerty · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Bill Hagerty
97%
DEM
Marquita Bradshaw
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Hagerty 51.0% · Bradshaw 31.0%
Targoz Market Research / Beacon Center of Tennessee · 2026-08-26
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+14
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 62.2%
2020 general · margin 27.0%
Side by side
10 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMBradshawINDGerenaINDWhitsonINDSutmanINDMaconINDHearnINDJonesINDChandlerINDMatthewsREPHagerty
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Marquita Bradshaw$35,195.38
Andrew GerenaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Catherine Barcel Barcy WhitsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Sutman Jr.$26,349.47
James William Macon IIINot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jeremy Dean HearnNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert Jones$12,300.00
Tharon ChandlerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Yoshi D. Matthews$47.25
Bill Hagerty$8,422,210.63
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Marquita Bradshaw$27,022.41
Andrew GerenaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Catherine Barcel Barcy WhitsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Sutman Jr.$26,349.47
James William Macon IIINot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jeremy Dean HearnNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert Jones$15,263.47
Tharon ChandlerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Yoshi D. Matthews$7,510.87
Bill Hagerty$5,393,224.73
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Marquita Bradshaw$8,251.62
Andrew GerenaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Catherine Barcel Barcy WhitsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Sutman Jr.$500.00
James William Macon IIINot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jeremy Dean HearnNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert Jones$706.97
Tharon ChandlerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Yoshi D. Matthews$-2,083.01
Bill Hagerty$4,956,454.97
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Marquita Bradshaw31.0%Targoz Market Research · 2026-08-26
Andrew GerenaNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-26)
Catherine Barcel Barcy WhitsonNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-26)
David Sutman Jr.Not available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-26)
James William Macon IIINot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-26)
Jeremy Dean HearnNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-26)
Robert JonesNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-26)
Tharon ChandlerNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-26)
Yoshi D. MatthewsNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-26)
Bill Hagerty51.0%Targoz Market Research · 2026-08-26
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Marquita BradshawR+14seat-level
Andrew GerenaR+14seat-level
Catherine Barcel Barcy WhitsonR+14seat-level
David Sutman Jr.R+14seat-level
James William Macon IIIR+14seat-level
Jeremy Dean HearnR+14seat-level
Robert JonesR+14seat-level
Tharon ChandlerR+14seat-level
Yoshi D. MatthewsR+14seat-level
Bill HagertyR+14seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Bradshaw | Gerena | Whitson | Sutman | Macon | Hearn | Jones | Chandler | Matthews | Hagerty | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market ResearchBeacon Center of Tennessee | 2026-08-15 to 2026-08-26 | RV · n=1,157 | 31.0% | not named | not named | not named | not named | not named | not named | not named | not named | 51.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+14
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -14.239
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | REP | 1,840,926 | 62.20% |
| Marquita Bradshaw | DEM | 1,040,691 | 35.16% |
| Elizabeth McLeod | OTH | 16,652 | 0.56% |
| Yomi “Fapas” Faparusi SR. | OTH | 10,727 | 0.36% |
| Steven J. Hooper | OTH | 9,609 | 0.32% |
| Kacey Morgan | OTH | 9,598 | 0.32% |
| Ronnie Henley | OTH | 8,478 | 0.29% |
| Aaron James | OTH | 7,203 | 0.24% |
Total votes 2,959,697 · winning margin 27.04% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Percentages are of the MEDSL total, which also counts 15,813 votes on lines the data file does not list; the named-candidate shares are therefore lower than a share of valid candidate votes.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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