Race header
DEMNominee
Shaun Finnie
6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Steve Toth
94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
94% Steve Toth · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Steve Toth
94%
DEM
Shaun Finnie
6%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMFinnieREPToth
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Shaun Finnie$3,158,587.64
Steve Toth$1,035,120.97
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Shaun Finnie$2,896,939.04
Steve Toth$922,740.87
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Shaun Finnie$261,648.60
Steve Toth$112,380.10
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Shaun FinnieNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Steve TothNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Shaun FinnieNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Steve TothNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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