Race header
DEMNominee
Jason Pearce
6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Pat Fallon
incumbent
94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentPat Fallon
Hume Outlook
94% Pat Fallon · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Pat Fallon
94%
DEM
Jason Pearce
6%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMPearceREPFallon
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jason Pearce$27,748.78
Pat Fallon$1,024,466.07
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jason Pearce$25,036.80
Pat Fallon$585,149.80
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jason Pearce$2,711.98
Pat Fallon$1,099,394.54
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jason PearceNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Pat FallonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jason PearceNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Pat FallonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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