Race header
DEMNominee
Danny Minton
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Jake Ellzey
incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJake Ellzey
Hume Outlook
97% Jake Ellzey · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Jake Ellzey
97%
DEM
Danny Minton
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMMintonREPEllzey
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Danny Minton$147,189.20through 2026-09-30
Jake Ellzey$5,518,242.29through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Danny Minton$107,550.94through 2026-09-30
Jake Ellzey$4,009,018.44through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Danny Minton$39,638.26through 2026-09-30
Jake Ellzey$2,604,671.49through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Danny MintonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jake EllzeyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Danny MintonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jake EllzeyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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