Race header
DEMNominee
Leticia Gutierrez
27%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Alex Mealer
73%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
73% Alex Mealer · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Alex Mealer
73%
DEM
Leticia Gutierrez
27%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGutierrezREPMealer
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Leticia Gutierrez$215,052.56
Alex Mealer$2,782,239.54
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Leticia Gutierrez$104,160.83
Alex Mealer$2,580,967.94
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Leticia Gutierrez$110,891.73
Alex Mealer$201,271.60
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Leticia GutierrezNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Alex MealerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Leticia GutierrezNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Alex MealerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.