Race header
DEMNominee
Mark Nair
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Ronny Jackson
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentRonny Jackson
Hume Outlook
99% Ronny Jackson · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Ronny Jackson
99%
DEM
Mark Nair
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMNairREPJackson
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Mark Nair$137,623.75
Ronny Jackson$4,806,245.43
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Mark Nair$134,800.08
Ronny Jackson$2,811,529.61
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Mark Nair$2,823.67
Ronny Jackson$5,396,663.45
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Mark NairNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Ronny JacksonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Mark NairNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Ronny JacksonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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