Race header
DEMNominee
Joaquin Castro
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Edgardo Rafael Baez
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJoaquin Castro
Hume Outlook
99% Joaquin Castro · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Joaquin Castro
99%
REP
Edgardo Rafael Baez
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCastroREPBaez
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Joaquin Castro$592,415.74
Edgardo Rafael Baez$69,063.40
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Joaquin Castro$601,756.67
Edgardo Rafael Baez$60,532.19
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Joaquin Castro$129,316.59
Edgardo Rafael Baez$8,531.21
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Joaquin CastroNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Edgardo Rafael BaezNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Joaquin CastroNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Edgardo Rafael BaezNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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