Race header
DEMNominee
Katy Padilla Stout
39%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Ben Mendoza
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Brandon Herrera
61%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
61% Brandon Herrera · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Brandon Herrera
61%
DEM
Katy Padilla Stout
39%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Herrera 46.0% · Stout 46.0%
Normington, Petts & Associates / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-07
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMStoutINDMendozaREPHerrera
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Katy Padilla Stout$1,117,715.08
Ben MendozaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brandon Herrera$3,115,205.22
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Katy Padilla Stout$973,291.43
Ben MendozaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brandon Herrera$2,804,434.23
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Katy Padilla Stout$144,423.65
Ben MendozaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brandon Herrera$318,811.95
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Katy Padilla Stout46.0%Normington, Petts & Associates · 2026-10-07
Ben MendozaNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-07)
Brandon Herrera46.0%Normington, Petts & Associates · 2026-10-07
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Katy Padilla StoutNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Ben MendozaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Brandon HerreraNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Stout | Mendoza | Herrera | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07 | LV · n=400 | 46.0% | not named | 46.0% | none |
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2026-03-10 to 2026-03-11 | RV · n=521 | 40.0% | not named | 42.0% | none |
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2026-03-10 to 2026-03-11 | A · n=521 | 40.0% | not named | 42.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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