Race header
DEMNominee
Kevin Burge
11%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Beth Van Duyne
incumbent
89%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBeth Van Duyne
Hume Outlook
89% Beth Van Duyne · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Beth Van Duyne
89%
DEM
Kevin Burge
11%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMBurgeREPDuyne
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Kevin Burge$334,210.32
Beth Van Duyne$3,049,506.14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Kevin Burge$252,864.30
Beth Van Duyne$3,327,165.93
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Kevin Burge$81,346.02
Beth Van Duyne$1,683,212.32
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Kevin BurgeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Beth Van DuyneNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Kevin BurgeNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Beth Van DuyneNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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