Race header
DEMNominee
Henry Cuellar
incumbent
90%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Marlón Durán
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Tano E. Tijerina
10%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentHenry Cuellar
Hume Outlook
90% Henry Cuellar · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Henry Cuellar
90%
REP
Tano E. Tijerina
10%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Cuellar 54.0% · Tijerina 34.0%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCuellarGRNDuránREPTijerina
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Henry Cuellar$3,043,039.01
Marlón DuránNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tano E. Tijerina$1,862,406.86
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Henry Cuellar$2,433,767.42
Marlón DuránNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tano E. Tijerina$1,749,356.76
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Henry Cuellar$657,230.50
Marlón DuránNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tano E. Tijerina$113,050.10
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Henry Cuellar54.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-13
Marlón DuránNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-13)
Tano E. Tijerina34.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Henry CuellarNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Marlón DuránNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Tano E. TijerinaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Cuellar | Durán | Tijerina | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2026-10-07 to 2026-10-13 | LV · n=563 | 54.0% | not named | 34.0% | none |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-07-27 to 2026-07-30 | LV · n=600 | 45.0% | 6.0% | 34.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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