Race header
DEMNominee
Justin Early
6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Greg Stoker
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
John Carter
incumbent
94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJohn Carter
Hume Outlook
94% John Carter · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
John Carter
94%
DEM
Justin Early
6%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMEarlyGRNStokerREPCarter
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Justin Early$291,879.92through 2026-10-14
Greg Stoker$78,678.27through 2026-06-30
John Carter$1,522,249.68through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Justin Early$271,032.40through 2026-10-14
Greg Stoker$66,280.72through 2026-06-30
John Carter$1,404,517.68through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Justin Early$20,847.52through 2026-10-14
Greg Stoker$12,397.55through 2026-06-30
John Carter$159,170.95through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Justin EarlyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Greg StokerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
John CarterNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Justin EarlyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Greg StokerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
John CarterNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Jun 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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