Race header
DEMNominee
Dan Barrios
25%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Jace Yarbrough
75%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
75% Jace Yarbrough · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Jace Yarbrough
75%
DEM
Dan Barrios
25%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMBarriosREPYarbrough
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Dan Barrios$160,379.07
Jace Yarbrough$1,261,760.06
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Dan Barrios$151,633.90
Jace Yarbrough$1,138,666.34
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Dan Barrios$8,745.17
Jace Yarbrough$123,093.72
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Dan BarriosNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jace YarbroughNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Dan BarriosNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jace YarbroughNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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