Race header
DEMNominee
Johnny C. Garcia
63%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Carlos De La Cruz
37%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
63% Johnny C. Garcia · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Johnny C. Garcia
63%
REP
Carlos De La Cruz
37%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Garcia 47.0% · Cruz 45.0%
Normington, Petts & Associates / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-14 · 1 more matchup(s) with the same field end in the table below
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGarciaREPCruz
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Johnny C. Garcia$2,201,578.83
Carlos De La Cruz$2,021,117.55
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Johnny C. Garcia$2,052,076.08
Carlos De La Cruz$1,708,510.47
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Johnny C. Garcia$149,502.75
Carlos De La Cruz$312,607.08
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Johnny C. Garcia47.0%Normington, Petts & Associates · 2026-10-14
Carlos De La Cruz45.0%Normington, Petts & Associates · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Johnny C. GarciaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Carlos De La CruzNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Garcia | Cruz | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=400 | 47.0% | 45.0% | none |
| Emerson CollegePoll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=417 | 51.0% | 49.0% | none |
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesHouse Majority PAC | 2026-08-27 to 2026-08-31 | LV · n=500 | 44.0% | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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