Race header
DEMNominee
Greg Casar
>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Lauren B. Peña
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
>99% Greg Casar · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Greg Casar
>99%
REP
Lauren B. Peña
<1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCasarREPPeña
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Greg Casar$1,382,791.38
Lauren B. Peña$132,161.88
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Greg Casar$1,209,544.92
Lauren B. Peña$127,708.15
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Greg Casar$544,085.42
Lauren B. Peña$4,453.73
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Greg CasarNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Lauren B. PeñaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Greg CasarNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Lauren B. PeñaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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