Race header
DEMNominee
Melissa McDonough
7%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Alex McMenemy
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Jon Bonck
93%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
93% Jon Bonck · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Jon Bonck
93%
DEM
Melissa McDonough
7%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMMcdonoughGRNMcmenemyREPBonck
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Melissa McDonough$124,711.24
Alex McMenemy$9,887.90
Jon Bonck$2,202,298.38
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Melissa McDonough$102,969.36
Alex McMenemy$9,142.34
Jon Bonck$1,954,128.09
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Melissa McDonough$44,441.67
Alex McMenemy$745.56
Jon Bonck$248,170.29
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Melissa McDonoughNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Alex McMenemyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jon BonckNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Melissa McDonoughNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Alex McMenemyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jon BonckNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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