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DEMDemocratic nominee
James Talaricolimited profile
open-seat nominee
won March 3, 2026 primary, 52.4%, no runoff
55%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Ted Brown
—Not published for this candidate
REPRepublican nominee
Ken Paxtonlimited profile
open-seat nominee (defeated incumbent Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 runoff)
45%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJohn Cornyn (R) - lost the May 26, 2026 Republican primary runoff; not a general-election candidate
Why it is watchedCook moved Texas from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Aug 20, 2026 (Cook race page, 'last updated Aug 20, 2026'; Washington Post and Spectrum News, Aug 20, 2026), a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Incumbent John Cornyn lost the GOP runoff to Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26, 2026 by roughly 64-35 (Texas Tribune, KERA, May 26, 2026), the first primary defeat of a sitting Texas senator since 1970. State Rep. James Talarico won the Democratic primary outright on March 3, 2026 with 52.4% over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Wikipedia, 2026 Texas Senate election). The Texas Tribune reports Talarico has out-raised Paxton and led in several general-election polls, while some Cornyn voters said they would sit out or cross over.
Notes
- March 3, 2026 GOP primary: Cornyn 42.0%, Paxton 40.5%, Wesley Hunt 13.5% (Wikipedia raw; KERA). Runoff May 26: Paxton 63.8% (Texas Tribune / KERA).
Hume Outlook
55% James Talarico · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
James Talarico
55%
REP
Ken Paxton
45%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Talarico 49.0% · Paxton 43.0%
CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-27 · 1 more matchup(s) with the same field end in the table below
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+6
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 53.5%
2020 general · margin 9.6%
Side by side
3 candidates · 6 measuresMeasureDEMTalaricoLIBBrownREPPaxton
Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage
James TalaricoTALARICO FOR TEXASC00919084
Ted BrownNot available No principal committee linkage in the data file
Ken PaxtonKEN PAXTON FOR SENATEC00901918
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
James Talarico$146,349,912.38
Ted Brown$14,257.28
Ken Paxton$22,327,473.92
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
James Talarico$136,427,054.98
Ted Brown$13,036.81
Ken Paxton$17,543,065.62
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
James Talarico$9,922,857.40
Ted Brown$1,288.35
Ken Paxton$4,784,408.30
Latest pollpercent, as stored
James Talarico49.0%CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-27
Ted BrownNot available Not named in the newest listed polls (2026-10-27)
Ken Paxton43.0%CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-27
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
James TalaricoR+6seat-level
Ted BrownR+6seat-level
Ken PaxtonR+6seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Talarico | Brown | Paxton | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-27 | LV · n=923 | 49.0% | not named | 43.0% | none |
| A2 Insights | 2026-10-23 to 2026-10-27 | LV · n=631 | 50.2% | not named | 47.2% | none |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-25 | LV · n=2,000 | 49.0% | 3.0% | 47.0% | none |
| YouGovN+ Univision | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-21 | RV · n=1,000 | 50.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
| ActiVote | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-21 | LV · n=400 | 51.0% | not named | 49.0% | none |
| VoteHub/Verasight | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=601 | 47.6% | 1.4% | 45.2% | none |
| Emerson CollegeNexstar Media | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=1,000 | 48.0% | 1.0% | 46.0% | none |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchFox News | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=1,398 | 49.0% | not named | 49.0% | none |
| Slingshot StrategiesTexas Public Opinion Research | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | LV · n=969 | 51.0% | 2.0% | 47.0% | none |
| Pollfinity | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | LV · n=278 | 48.0% | 2.0% | 43.0% | none |
19 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+6
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -5.826
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | REP | 5,962,983 | 53.51% |
| Mary “MJ” Hegar | DEM | 4,888,764 | 43.87% |
| Kerry Douglas McKennon | LIB | 209,722 | 1.88% |
| David B. Collins | GRN | 81,893 | 0.73% |
Total votes 11,143,362 · winning margin 9.64% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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