Race header
DEMNominee
Peter Crosby
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Robert M. Moesinger
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Daniel Cottam
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Carlton E. Bowen
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Blake D. Moore
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
97% Blake D. Moore · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Blake D. Moore
97%
DEM
Peter Crosby
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Moore 39.0% · Crosby 34.0% · Bowen 4.1% · Cottam 4.9% · Moesinger 4.9%
Lighthouse Research / Utah Debate Commission · 2026-09-24
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
5 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCrosbyINDMoesingerLIBCottamOTHBowenREPMoore
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Peter Crosby$153,918.33
Robert M. Moesinger$11,605.75
Daniel CottamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Carlton E. BowenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Blake D. Moore$2,796,221.05
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Peter Crosby$100,795.47
Robert M. Moesinger$8,448.35
Daniel CottamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Carlton E. BowenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Blake D. Moore$2,722,159.95
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Peter Crosby$47,879.29
Robert M. Moesinger$-556.25
Daniel CottamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Carlton E. BowenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Blake D. Moore$1,608,084.04
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Peter Crosby34.0%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-24
Robert M. Moesinger4.9%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-24
Daniel Cottam4.9%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-24
Carlton E. Bowen4.1%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-24
Blake D. Moore39.0%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-24
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Peter CrosbyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Robert M. MoesingerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Daniel CottamNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Carlton E. BowenNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Blake D. MooreNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Crosby | Moesinger | Cottam | Bowen | Moore | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse ResearchUtah Debate Commission | 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-24 | LV · n=515 | 34.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 39.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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