Race header
DEMNominee
Jonny Larsen
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Steven Burt
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Taylor Wright
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Mike Kennedy
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
98% Mike Kennedy · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Mike Kennedy
98%
DEM
Jonny Larsen
2%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Kennedy 41.7% · Larsen 32.9% · Wright 5.3% · Burt 5.7%
Lighthouse Research / Utah Debate Commission · 2026-09-17
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMLarsenINDBurtLIBWrightREPKennedy
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jonny Larsen$88,136.41
Steven Burt$39,743.50
Taylor WrightNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Kennedy$1,209,378.05
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jonny Larsen$83,274.94
Steven Burt$37,961.66
Taylor WrightNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Kennedy$885,761.61
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jonny Larsen$4,861.47
Steven Burt$1,781.84
Taylor WrightNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Kennedy$448,818.25
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jonny Larsen32.9%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-17
Steven Burt5.7%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-17
Taylor Wright5.3%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-17
Mike Kennedy41.7%Lighthouse Research · 2026-09-17
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jonny LarsenNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Steven BurtNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Taylor WrightNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mike KennedyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Larsen | Burt | Wright | Kennedy | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse ResearchUtah Debate Commission | 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-17 | LV · n=513 | 32.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 41.7% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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