Race header
DEMNominee
Elaine G. Luria
68%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Geral D. Bishop Staten
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
J. Matt Baker
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Jen A. Kiggans
incumbent
32%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJen A. Kiggans
Hume Outlook
68% Elaine G. Luria · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Elaine G. Luria
68%
REP
Jen A. Kiggans
32%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Luria 47.0% · Kiggans 47.0%
Tulchin Research / House Majority PAC · 2026-07-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+2
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 50.8%
2024 general · margin 3.9%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMLuriaINDStatenINDBakerREPKiggans
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Elaine G. Luria$8,044,063.94
Geral D. Bishop StatenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
J. Matt Baker$8,349.26
Jen A. Kiggans$7,589,812.06
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Elaine G. Luria$7,565,201.72
Geral D. Bishop StatenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
J. Matt Baker$1,851.79
Jen A. Kiggans$6,342,881.09
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Elaine G. Luria$478,862.22
Geral D. Bishop StatenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
J. Matt Baker$6,497.47
Jen A. Kiggans$1,292,408.37
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Elaine G. Luria47.0%Tulchin Research · 2026-07-13
Geral D. Bishop StatenNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-07-13)
J. Matt BakerNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-07-13)
Jen A. Kiggans47.0%Tulchin Research · 2026-07-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Elaine G. LuriaR+2seat-level
Geral D. Bishop StatenR+2seat-level
J. Matt BakerR+2seat-level
Jen A. KiggansR+2seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Luria | Staten | Baker | Kiggans | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchHouse Majority PAC | 2026-07-09 to 2026-07-13 | LV · n=700 | 47.0% | not named | not named | 47.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+2
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -2.166
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jen A. Kiggans | REP | 207,368 | 50.80% |
| Missy Cotter Smasal | DEM | 191,666 | 46.95% |
| Robert E. Reid, JR. | OTH | 9,197 | 2.25% |
Total votes 408,231 · winning margin 3.85% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.