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Race · U.S. House · Virginia · 2026

Virginia District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Virginia District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Virginia District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Jennifer L. McClellan incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Joan E. Andrews Bell
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Robert P. Family Man Murray, Jr.
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJennifer L. McClellan

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Jennifer L. McClellan · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Jennifer L. McClellan 99%
REP Robert P. Family Man Murray, Jr. 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+16 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 67.5% 2024 general · margin 35.0%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMcclellanINDBellREPMurray
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jennifer L. McClellan$1,546,997.29
Joan E. Andrews BellNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert P. Family Man Murray, Jr.$1,549.87
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jennifer L. McClellan$1,378,248.90
Joan E. Andrews BellNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert P. Family Man Murray, Jr.$41.01
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jennifer L. McClellan$222,829.62
Joan E. Andrews BellNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert P. Family Man Murray, Jr.$1,508.86
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jennifer L. McClellanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Joan E. Andrews BellNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Robert P. Family Man Murray, Jr.Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jennifer L. McClellanD+16seat-level
Joan E. Andrews BellD+16seat-level
Robert P. Family Man Murray, Jr.D+16seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+16
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +15.695

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Jennifer L. McClellanDEM252,88567.49%
    William J. “Bill” Moher IIIREP121,81432.51%

    Total votes 374,699 · winning margin 34.98% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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