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Race · U.S. House · Virginia · 2026

Virginia District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Virginia District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, Virginia District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Tom S. P. Perriello
31%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Cooke C. Harvey
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
John J. McGuire III incumbent
69%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJohn J. McGuire III

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
69% John J. McGuire III · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP John J. McGuire III 69%
DEM Tom S. P. Perriello 31%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Mcguire 51.0% · Perriello 46.0% The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government · 2026-09-28
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+7 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 57.5% 2024 general · margin 15.1%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMPerrielloINDHarveyREPMcguire
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Tom S. P. Perriello$3,762,301.32
Cooke C. HarveyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John J. McGuire III$2,419,702.34
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Tom S. P. Perriello$3,078,135.29
Cooke C. HarveyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John J. McGuire III$2,071,868.13
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Tom S. P. Perriello$684,166.03
Cooke C. HarveyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John J. McGuire III$382,052.72
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Tom S. P. Perriello46.0%The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government · 2026-09-28
Cooke C. HarveyNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-09-28)
John J. McGuire III51.0%The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government · 2026-09-28
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Tom S. P. PerrielloR+7seat-level
Cooke C. HarveyR+7seat-level
John J. McGuire IIIR+7seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

1 listed · newest first
Newest field end 2026-09-28
Pollster / sponsorField datesSamplePerrielloHarveyMcguireOthers
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government2026-09-23 to 2026-09-28LV · n=60046.0%not named51.0%none
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+7
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -6.688

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    John J. McGuire IIIREP249,56457.53%
    Gloria Tinsley WittDEM184,22942.47%

    Total votes 433,793 · winning margin 15.06% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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