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Race · U.S. House · Virginia · 2026

Virginia District 7 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Virginia District 7

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Race header

U.S. House, Virginia District 7 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Eugene S. Vindman incumbent
85%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Alaha Ahrar
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Joshua E. Ertle
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Randall A. Terry
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Taner E. Demirci Lopez
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Doug A. Ollivant
15%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentEugene S. Vindman

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
85% Eugene S. Vindman · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Eugene S. Vindman 85%
REP Doug A. Ollivant 15%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+1 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 51.3% 2024 general · margin 2.6%

Side by side

6 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMVindmanINDAhrarINDErtleINDTerryLIBLopezREPOllivant
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Eugene S. Vindman$16,339,249.68through 2026-10-14
Alaha Ahrar$28,923.10through 2026-10-14
Joshua E. ErtleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Randall A. Terry$45,484.00through 2026-09-30
Taner E. Demirci LopezNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Doug A. Ollivant$389,127.17through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Eugene S. Vindman$11,248,587.96through 2026-10-14
Alaha Ahrar$11,167.11through 2026-10-14
Joshua E. ErtleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Randall A. Terry$39,789.25through 2026-09-30
Taner E. Demirci LopezNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Doug A. Ollivant$279,911.02through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Eugene S. Vindman$5,225,595.46through 2026-10-14
Alaha Ahrar$3,659.55through 2026-10-14
Joshua E. ErtleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Randall A. Terry$5,694.75through 2026-09-30
Taner E. Demirci LopezNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Doug A. Ollivant$109,216.15through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Eugene S. VindmanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Alaha AhrarNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Joshua E. ErtleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Randall A. TerryNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Taner E. Demirci LopezNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Doug A. OllivantNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Eugene S. VindmanD+1seat-level
Alaha AhrarD+1seat-level
Joshua E. ErtleD+1seat-level
Randall A. TerryD+1seat-level
Taner E. Demirci LopezD+1seat-level
Doug A. OllivantD+1seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+1
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +0.896

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Eugene S. VindmanDEM203,33651.32%
    Derrick M. AndersonREP192,84748.68%

    Total votes 396,183 · winning margin 2.65% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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