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Race · U.S. House · Virginia · 2026

Virginia District 8 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Virginia District 8

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Race header

U.S. House, Virginia District 8 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Donald S. Beyer Jr. incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Tim S. Sharman
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Shelly M. Arnoldi
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Tony A. Sabio
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentDonald S. Beyer Jr.

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Donald S. Beyer Jr. · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Donald S. Beyer Jr. 99%
REP Tony A. Sabio 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+26 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 71.7% 2024 general · margin 47.0%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMBeyerINDSharmanLIBArnoldiREPSabio
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Donald S. Beyer Jr.$2,529,480.41
Tim S. Sharman$45,422.41
Shelly M. ArnoldiNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tony A. Sabio$44,255.68
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Donald S. Beyer Jr.$2,237,816.32
Tim S. Sharman$45,372.41
Shelly M. ArnoldiNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tony A. Sabio$37,625.89
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Donald S. Beyer Jr.$848,726.77
Tim S. Sharman$50.00
Shelly M. ArnoldiNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tony A. Sabio$6,204.79
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Donald S. Beyer Jr.Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tim S. SharmanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Shelly M. ArnoldiNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tony A. SabioNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Donald S. Beyer Jr.D+26seat-level
Tim S. SharmanD+26seat-level
Shelly M. ArnoldiD+26seat-level
Tony A. SabioD+26seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+26
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +26.224

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Donald S. Beyer, JR.DEM274,59371.72%
    Jerry W. TorresREP94,67624.73%
    David R. KennedyOTH9,9562.60%
    Bentley F. HenselOTH3,6560.95%

    Total votes 382,881 · winning margin 46.99% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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