VA-09 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Virginia District 9 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Joy A. Powers

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

H. Morgan Griffith incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentH. Morgan Griffith

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% H. Morgan Griffith · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP H. Morgan Griffith 99%

DEM Joy A. Powers 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+23 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 72.6% 2024 general · margin 45.2%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMPowersREPGriffith

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Joy A. Powers$256,577.62

H. Morgan Griffith$2,173,784.73

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Joy A. Powers$196,950.36

H. Morgan Griffith$1,758,556.76

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Joy A. Powers$59,671.26

H. Morgan Griffith$879,116.67

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Joy A. PowersNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

H. Morgan GriffithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Joy A. PowersR+23seat-level

H. Morgan GriffithR+23seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+23

Lean (D minus R, points): -23.261

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
H. Morgan Griffith	REP	290,645	72.62%
Karen G. H. Baker	DEM	109,570	27.38%

Total votes 400,215 · winning margin 45.24% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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