Influence no longer invisible Races · VA-11 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · Virginia · 2026

Virginia District 11 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Virginia District 11

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Race header

U.S. House, Virginia District 11 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
James R. Walkinshaw incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Dianne L. Blais
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Arthur G. Purves
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJames R. Walkinshaw

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% James R. Walkinshaw · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM James R. Walkinshaw 99%
REP Arthur G. Purves 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+18 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 67.0% 2024 general · margin 34.0%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMWalkinshawGRNBlaisREPPurves
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
James R. Walkinshaw$3,270,621.28
Dianne L. BlaisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Arthur G. Purves$38,664.61
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
James R. Walkinshaw$2,127,505.80
Dianne L. BlaisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Arthur G. Purves$18,929.53
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
James R. Walkinshaw$1,143,115.48
Dianne L. BlaisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Arthur G. Purves$19,735.08
Latest pollpercent, as stored
James R. WalkinshawNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Dianne L. BlaisNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Arthur G. PurvesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
James R. WalkinshawD+18seat-level
Dianne L. BlaisD+18seat-level
Arthur G. PurvesD+18seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+18
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +18.152

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Gerald E. ConnollyDEM273,52966.99%
    Mike L. Van MeterREP134,80233.01%

    Total votes 408,331 · winning margin 33.97% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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