VA Senate 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Mark R. Warner incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Bert Mizusawa

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMark R. Warner

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Mark R. Warner · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Mark R. Warner 97%

REP Bert Mizusawa 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Warner 48.0% · Mizusawa 32.0% The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-16 · 1 more matchup(s) with the same field end in the table below

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+3 cycles 2020, 2024

Prior result, this seat DEM 56.0% 2020 general · margin 12.1%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMWarnerREPMizusawa

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Mark R. Warner$20,222,105.45

Bert Mizusawa$1,141,129.70

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Mark R. Warner$19,557,661.95

Bert Mizusawa$987,431.75

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Mark R. Warner$6,217,677.32

Bert Mizusawa$154,033.84

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Mark R. Warner48.0%The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-16

Bert Mizusawa32.0%The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-16

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Mark R. WarnerD+3seat-level

Bert MizusawaD+3seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

2 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-06-16

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Warner	Mizusawa	Others
The Public Sentiment Institute	2026-06-12 to 2026-06-16	RV · n=996	48.0%	32.0%	Mark Moran 4.0%
The Public Sentiment Institute	2026-06-12 to 2026-06-16	LV	50.0%	33.0%	Mark Moran 3.0%

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2024

D+3

Lean (D minus R, points): +3.426
Presidential cycles: 2020, 2024
Computed: 2026-06-08

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2020 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Mark R. Warner	DEM	2,466,500	56.05%
Daniel M. Gade	REP	1,934,199	43.95%

Total votes 4,400,699 · winning margin 12.10% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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Virginia · U.S. Senate · 2026