Race header
DEMNominee
Becca Balint
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Adam Ortiz
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Phoenix K. Altair
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Ryan P. Walton
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Suzanne Suz Seymour
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Gerald Malloy
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBecca Balint
Hume Outlook
99% Becca Balint · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Becca Balint
99%
REP
Gerald Malloy
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Balint 66.0% · Malloy 30.0% · Ortiz 0.0% · Altair 0.0% · Seymour 1.0% · Walton 0.0%
University of New Hampshire · 2026-09-21
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+15
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
DEM 62.5%
2024 general · margin 32.6%
Side by side
6 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMBalintINDOrtizINDAltairINDWaltonINDSeymourREPMalloy
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Becca Balint$1,178,502.59
Adam OrtizNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Phoenix K. AltairNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ryan P. WaltonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Suzanne Suz SeymourNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Gerald Malloy$189,568.02
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Becca Balint$712,248.27
Adam OrtizNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Phoenix K. AltairNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ryan P. WaltonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Suzanne Suz SeymourNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Gerald Malloy$155,348.33
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Becca Balint$612,015.81
Adam OrtizNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Phoenix K. AltairNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ryan P. WaltonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Suzanne Suz SeymourNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Gerald Malloy$34,219.69
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Becca Balint66.0%University of New Hampshire · 2026-09-21
Adam Ortiz0.0%University of New Hampshire · 2026-09-21
Phoenix K. Altair0.0%University of New Hampshire · 2026-09-21
Ryan P. Walton0.0%University of New Hampshire · 2026-09-21
Suzanne Suz Seymour1.0%University of New Hampshire · 2026-09-21
Gerald Malloy30.0%University of New Hampshire · 2026-09-21
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Becca BalintD+15seat-level
Adam OrtizD+15seat-level
Phoenix K. AltairD+15seat-level
Ryan P. WaltonD+15seat-level
Suzanne Suz SeymourD+15seat-level
Gerald MalloyD+15seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Balint | Ortiz | Altair | Walton | Seymour | Malloy | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-17 to 2026-09-21 | LV · n=835 | 66.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 30.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-07-15 to 2026-07-20 | LV · n=954 | 63.0% | 2.0% | not named | not named | not named | 25.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-18 to 2026-06-23 | LV · n=237 | 57.0% | not named | not named | not named | not named | 26.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+15
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +15.362
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Becca Balint | DEM | 218,398 | 62.46% |
| Mark Coester | REP | 104,451 | 29.87% |
| Adam Ortiz | OTH | 19,286 | 5.52% |
| Jill “Jessy” Diamondstone | GRN | 7,552 | 2.16% |
Total votes 349,687 · winning margin 32.59% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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