WA-03 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Washington District 3 · Incumbent running

DEMAdvanced to the general

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez incumbent

72%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPAdvanced to the general

John Braun

28%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMarie Gluesenkamp Perez

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

72% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 72%

REP John Braun 28%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Perez 45.0% · Braun 44.0% Change Research / Northwest Progressive Institute · 2026-10-21

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+5 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 52.0% 2024 general · margin 3.9%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMPerezREPBraun

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$9,472,266.66

John Braun$3,311,756.42

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$9,264,207.10

John Braun$2,639,837.28

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$234,519.93

John Braun$671,919.14

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez45.0%Change Research · 2026-10-21

John Braun44.0%Change Research · 2026-10-21

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Marie Gluesenkamp PerezR+5seat-level

John BraunR+5seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

4 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-21

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Perez	Braun	Others
Change ResearchNorthwest Progressive Institute	2026-10-19 to 2026-10-21	LV · n=551	45.0%	44.0%	none
DHM ResearchOregon Public Broadcasting	2026-09-17 to 2026-09-27	LV · n=543	47.0%	48.0%	none
Emerson CollegeNorthwest Progressive Institute	2026-07-08 to 2026-07-10	LV · n=500	44.0%	45.0%	none
Voter SciencesWashington State Republican Party	2025-08-01 to 2025-08-01	RV	41.3%	47.5%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+5

Lean (D minus R, points): -4.703

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	DEM	215,177	51.95%
Joe Kent	REP	199,054	48.05%

Total votes 414,231 · winning margin 3.89% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.