WA-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Washington District 4 · Open seat

DEMAdvanced to the general

John Duresky

9%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPAdvanced to the general

Amanda McKinney

91%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

91% Amanda McKinney · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Amanda McKinney 91%

DEM John Duresky 9%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+12 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 53.0% 2024 general · margin 6.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMDureskyREPMckinney

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

John Duresky$459,019.84

Amanda McKinney$1,448,473.62

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

John Duresky$375,328.59

Amanda McKinney$1,231,097.77

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

John Duresky$83,691.25

Amanda McKinney$217,375.85

Latest pollpercent, as stored

John DureskyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Amanda McKinneyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

John DureskyR+12seat-level

Amanda McKinneyR+12seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+12

Lean (D minus R, points): -11.563

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Dan Newhouse	REP	153,477	52.99%
Jerrod Sessler	REP	136,175	47.01%

Total votes 289,652 · winning margin 5.97% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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