Influence no longer invisible Races · WA-05 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · Washington · 2026

Washington District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Washington District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, Washington District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMAdvanced to the general
Carmela Conroy
16%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Michael Baumgartner incumbent
84%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMichael Baumgartner

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
84% Michael Baumgartner · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Michael Baumgartner 84%
DEM Carmela Conroy 16%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+8 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 60.7% 2024 general · margin 21.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMConroyREPBaumgartner
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Carmela Conroy$840,422.66
Michael Baumgartner$2,208,414.59
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Carmela Conroy$763,370.78
Michael Baumgartner$1,710,064.61
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Carmela Conroy$90,193.47
Michael Baumgartner$689,914.65
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Carmela ConroyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Michael BaumgartnerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Carmela ConroyR+8seat-level
Michael BaumgartnerR+8seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+8
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -7.889

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Michael BaumgartnerREP240,61960.66%
    Carmela ConroyDEM156,07439.34%

    Total votes 396,693 · winning margin 21.31% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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