WA-08 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Washington District 8 · Incumbent running

DEMAdvanced to the general

Kim Schrier incumbent

95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPAdvanced to the general

Spencer Meline

5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentKim Schrier

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

95% Kim Schrier · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Kim Schrier 95%

REP Spencer Meline 5%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+1 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 54.1% 2024 general · margin 8.2%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMSchrierREPMeline

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Kim Schrier$3,766,607.24

Spencer Meline$157,773.63

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Kim Schrier$2,371,337.66

Spencer Meline$85,052.41

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Kim Schrier$3,216,892.25

Spencer Meline$72,721.22

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Kim SchrierNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Spencer MelineNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Kim SchrierD+1seat-level

Spencer MelineD+1seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+1

Lean (D minus R, points): +0.975

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Kim Schrier	DEM	224,607	54.09%
Carmen Goers	REP	190,675	45.91%

Total votes 415,282 · winning margin 8.17% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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