WA-09 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Washington District 9 · Incumbent running

DEMAdvanced to the general

Adam Smith incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPAdvanced to the general

Doug Basler

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentAdam Smith

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Adam Smith · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Adam Smith 99%

REP Doug Basler 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+21 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 66.9% 2024 general · margin 33.7%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMSmithREPBasler

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Adam Smith$2,202,050.79

Doug Basler$44,410.66

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Adam Smith$2,145,451.50

Doug Basler$35,705.02

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Adam Smith$627,352.11

Doug Basler$9,248.61

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Adam SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Doug BaslerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Adam SmithD+21seat-level

Doug BaslerD+21seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+21

Lean (D minus R, points): +21.211

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Adam Smith	DEM	182,780	66.86%
Melissa Chaudhry	DEM	90,601	33.14%

Total votes 273,381 · winning margin 33.72% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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