WI-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

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U.S. House, Wisconsin District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Mitchell Berman

49%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Bryan Steil incumbent

51%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentBryan Steil

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

51% Bryan Steil · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Bryan Steil 51%

DEM Mitchell Berman 49%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Steil 47.0% · Berman 48.0% Impact Research / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-01

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+3 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 54.1% 2024 general · margin 10.2%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMBermanREPSteil

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Mitchell Berman$1,977,099.04

Bryan Steil$6,393,553.46

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Mitchell Berman$1,625,541.26

Bryan Steil$6,369,119.29

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Mitchell Berman$351,557.78

Bryan Steil$2,243,604.54

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Mitchell Berman48.0%Impact Research · 2026-10-01

Bryan Steil47.0%Impact Research · 2026-10-01

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Mitchell BermanR+3seat-level

Bryan SteilR+3seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

1 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-01

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Berman	Steil	Others
Impact ResearchHouse Majority PAC	2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01	LV · n=500	48.0%	47.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+3

Lean (D minus R, points): -3.053

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Bryan Steil	REP	212,515	54.06%
Peter Barca	DEM	172,402	43.86%
Chester Todd, JR.	GRN	8,191	2.08%

Total votes 393,108 · winning margin 10.20% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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