Race header
DEMNominee
Rebecca Cooke
62%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Alexander Valiensi Kent
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Rustin Provance
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Derrick Van Orden
incumbent
38%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentDerrick Van Orden
Hume Outlook
62% Rebecca Cooke · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Rebecca Cooke
62%
REP
Derrick Van Orden
38%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Orden 46.0% · Cooke 50.0%
FM3 Research / House Majority PAC · 2026-06-25
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+4
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 51.4%
2024 general · margin 2.7%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCookeINDKentINDProvanceREPOrden
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Rebecca Cooke$12,675,996.72
Alexander Valiensi KentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rustin ProvanceNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Derrick Van Orden$9,101,596.33
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Rebecca Cooke$12,238,748.98
Alexander Valiensi KentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rustin ProvanceNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Derrick Van Orden$8,452,731.29
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Rebecca Cooke$447,387.26
Alexander Valiensi KentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rustin ProvanceNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Derrick Van Orden$1,165,671.10
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Rebecca Cooke50.0%FM3 Research · 2026-06-25
Alexander Valiensi KentNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-06-25)
Rustin ProvanceNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-06-25)
Derrick Van Orden46.0%FM3 Research · 2026-06-25
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Rebecca CookeR+4seat-level
Alexander Valiensi KentR+4seat-level
Rustin ProvanceR+4seat-level
Derrick Van OrdenR+4seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Cooke | Kent | Provance | Orden | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 ResearchHouse Majority PAC | 2026-06-20 to 2026-06-25 | LV · n=535 | 50.0% | not named | not named | 46.0% | none |
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2025-10-14 to 2025-10-15 | LV · n=609 | 44.0% | not named | not named | 42.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+4
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -4.286
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Van Orden | REP | 212,064 | 51.36% |
| Rebecca Cooke | DEM | 200,808 | 48.64% |
Total votes 412,872 · winning margin 2.73% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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