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Race · U.S. House · Wisconsin · 2026

Wisconsin District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Wisconsin District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Gwen Moore incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Arthur Burks
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Tim Rogers
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentGwen Moore

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Gwen Moore · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Gwen Moore 99%
REP Tim Rogers 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+25 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 74.9% 2024 general · margin 52.5%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMooreINDBurksREPRogers
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Gwen Moore$1,319,135.10
Arthur BurksNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tim RogersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Gwen Moore$1,296,315.75
Arthur BurksNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tim RogersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Gwen Moore$45,066.80
Arthur BurksNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tim RogersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Gwen MooreNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Arthur BurksNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tim RogersNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Gwen MooreD+25seat-level
Arthur BurksD+25seat-level
Tim RogersD+25seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+25
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +24.812

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Gwen MooreDEM249,93874.91%
    Tim RogersREP74,92122.45%
    Robert R. RaymondOTH8,7922.64%

    Total votes 333,651 · winning margin 52.46% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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