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Race · U.S. House · Wisconsin · 2026

Wisconsin District 6 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Wisconsin District 6

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Race header

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 6 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Bradley Smith
10%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Matthew Arndt
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Elizabeth Fitzgibbon
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Mike Thurow
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Glenn Grothman incumbent
90%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentGlenn Grothman

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
90% Glenn Grothman · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Glenn Grothman 90%
DEM Bradley Smith 10%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+10 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 61.3% 2024 general · margin 22.6%

Side by side

5 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMSmithGRNArndtINDFitzgibbonINDThurowREPGrothman
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Bradley Smith$322,260.90through 2026-10-14
Matthew Arndt$2,210.00through 2026-09-30
Elizabeth Fitzgibbon$21,161.09through 2026-10-14
Mike Thurow$195,140.17through 2026-10-14
Glenn Grothman$1,193,554.78through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Bradley Smith$230,957.63through 2026-10-14
Matthew Arndt$500.00through 2026-09-30
Elizabeth Fitzgibbon$17,489.63through 2026-10-14
Mike Thurow$186,866.01through 2026-10-14
Glenn Grothman$1,115,971.85through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Bradley Smith$91,303.27through 2026-10-14
Matthew Arndt$1,710.00through 2026-09-30
Elizabeth Fitzgibbon$3,671.46through 2026-10-14
Mike Thurow$8,274.16through 2026-10-14
Glenn Grothman$600,072.64through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Bradley SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Matthew ArndtNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Elizabeth FitzgibbonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mike ThurowNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Glenn GrothmanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Bradley SmithR+10seat-level
Matthew ArndtR+10seat-level
Elizabeth FitzgibbonR+10seat-level
Mike ThurowR+10seat-level
Glenn GrothmanR+10seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+10
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -10.244

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Glenn GrothmanREP251,88961.30%
    John ZarbanoDEM159,04238.70%

    Total votes 410,931 · winning margin 22.59% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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